The world was focused last week on Hurricane Sandy and the US Presidential election. The Tories were defeated on a vote on the EU budget which could total ?1 trillion over its lifetime ? the rebel Tories are seeking cuts, while the French are looking for the budget (or the CAP element of it) to remain stable if not increase; these tensions, thrown on top of the ongoing banking crisis, won?t help the plight of the Eurozone.
The outcome of the US election is important beyond the US. Obama seems to be ahead, especially after his handling of the hurricane crisis this week. Romney also has attracted criticism for his lack of specifics in his economic plan. He wants to increase defence spending and cut taxes?but didn?t specify how these would be counteracted (in a country already running a significant deficit). My acid test would be much more basic ? who wants a private equity guy running a country? Having seen them in practice, they tend to be ruthless in their pursuit of the goal of making money ? but running a country requires a little more empathy. Two recent articles in the Sunday papers highlighted the growth in the gap (and attitude) between the top 1% (who have seen their wealth increase over the past few years) and the rest. It?s recipe for disaster in a social context.
2013 is shaping up to be a very significant year politically, socially and, therefore, economically. With a new US presidential term, new EU budget talks, German elections, establishment of a new banking union (with the attached conditions which won?t be palatable to some) and growing nationalism around Europe (which was inevitable, if undesirable), the ability of economies to bounce back will be dependent on the emergence of political leadership with vision beyond national boundaries.
Won?t be boring, that?s for sure!
Market Review
Eurozone. October inflation eased slightly to 2.5% from 2.6% a month earlier but unemployment rose to 11.6% ? a new record high ? in September. Manufacturing PMI also fell from 46.1 in September to 45.4 in October. This is the 15th month in a row for this figure to fall.
UK. Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.1 to 47.5 while one house price index showed prices up 0.6% in the month of October but down by 0.9% on the same time last year. A construction survey showed a reading just above 50 (signalling expansion) but it was met with some guarded optimism.
USA. The US added another 171,000 jobs in October while there was also an upward adjustment of 84,000 to the number of jobs created in August and September. The Conference Board consumer confidence reading jumped from 68.4 in September to 72.2 ? its highest level since February 2008. Construction spending was up 0.6%. Mortgage applications were down last week while labour costs rose by a modest 0.4% in Q3. Finally factory orders were up by 0.2% in September.
Foreign Exchange
EUR was slightly weaker against GBP and ended the week at EUR/GBP0.8010 but it lost 1c again against USD to EUR/USD1.2835.
Interest Rates
3-year Euro interest rates were back 5bp to 0.58% as the recent increases on the back of some optimism on the Euro banking situation abated again. UK 3-year rates were down 3bp at 0.77% and US 3-year rates were also down (by 4bp) at 0.48%.
Training ADVANCED ? Treasury Risk ? Monday 12th November 2012
Source: http://www.treasurysolutions.ie/market-watch-051112/
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